"Change is good"​, will the triple helix business model drive new investments?

As a hardened investment practitioner over numerous market cycles, I still see trends and their respective trend drivers as my closest friends. When the Fed eases, by increasing money supply, asset prices are inflated with the occasional pull-back, and when the Fed tightens, the reverse is true. This predictability of events has remained unnervingly accurate throughout my whole investment career. Equally, the level of market uncertainty will generally dictate immediate volatility and sentiment. These waters have been further muddied due to the confluence of a range of emerging technologies that are currently transforming every industry and impacting longer-term social trends.

The maxim of "buying low and selling high" appears self-evident. However, in the public market, one’s outlook is tempered by short-term economic and company reporting cycles and less so by the wider macro-outlook, long-term seminal trends, and a conspicuous change in the business mindset towards impact investing. Impact investing is no longer on the fringes of the investment product shelf. The now outmoded system of encouraging decisions based on how to make as much money as possible with the lowest level of risk is becoming obsolete. Is greed sufficient on its own? The transformation to a system that rewards making as much money as possible while also delivering the biggest impact and with the least amount of risk is well underway. I believe the new driving force in our changing economy will be Sir Ronald Cohen's triple helix of risk, return, and impact, ultimately driving every decision around consumption, employment, business, and investment.

The stage is now being set for greater predictability in terms of short-term sentiment, medium-term Fed policy, and long-term technological and social transformation. Over the past five years, private markets have also been made flush with fresh powder, which in turn has helped drive prices higher and, arguably, the makings of some poor investments. Today, however, private markets, with their extended investment horizons and change-oriented ethos, provide us with a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to deploy new capital at the intersection of all three trends. This is no time to be on the sidelines in private markets; it is time to make an impact.

The opinions expressed in this blog are the author’s own (presented in a non-professional capacity) and do not reflect the view of his employer, its affiliates, or of any other professional services provider or organisation whatsoever. The strategies presented are thematic and do not constitute investment advice (or advice of any kind). No assurance can be given that the objectives of the aforementioned investment strategies will be achieved; the strategies involve risk (including, without limitation, illiquidity risk) and may incur a loss on some or all capital deployed. The opinions expressed, as well as the information or assumptions that support them, may contain errors, mistakes, or omissions; no assurance or warranty can be made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information, and readers should not rely on it to execute investment decisions or for any other purpose. In any case, the author reserves the right to change his mind; as his thoughts and opinions may evolve or change to reflect an open mind. Readers accept full responsibility for the use of this content and are kindly requested to consult with their professional advisor before making any investment decisions related to the same.

By Louay Aldoory

Louay Aldoory is the Founder at 1648 Capital. 1648 Capital is a corporate advisory and private markets platform partnering with founders, shareholders, and investors on complex growth, restructuring, and capital structuring initiatives. We combine strategic insight with execution discipline, supporting businesses from transformation through to institutional capital alignment.

The strategies presented are thematic and do not constitute investment advice (or advice of any kind). No assurance can be given that the objectives of the investment above strategies will be achieved; the strategies involve risk (including, without limitation, illiquidity risk) and may incur a loss on some or all capital deployed. The opinions expressed, or indeed the information or assumptions that underpin them, may contain errors, mistakes, or omissions; no assurance or warranty can be made as to the accuracy or completeness of this information, and readers should not place any reliance on this content to execute investment decisions or for any other purpose. Readers accept full responsibility for using this content and are kindly requested to consult with their professional advisor before making any investment decision related to the same.

CHANGE BEGINS WITH A CONVERSATION